Ever wondered what some of the best football betting strategies for advanced bettors are? Well, in our exclusive and detailed article, you will find market analysis, risk management, as well as strategies that involve tips on how to be a league or team expert. All of the methods that we show can apply to any sport but are highly recommended for betting on football.
Football Betting Strategies Based on Market Analysis
One of the main things any future betting expert should focus on is market analysis. As advanced betting is not just another pastime activity but a process made of various elements, checking these multiple bits and pieces and putting them together may be one of the best football betting strategies for advanced bettors.
That being said, we already assume that our readers know how to read football betting odds. Apart from reading betting odds, no advanced bettor is unfamiliar with football betting markets. So, we jump straight to high-level betting methods.
1. Line Shopping
- Line shopping is basically taking the knowledge of markets and odds to a whole new level. Once you know markets well (what they represent, how you can combine them, etc.), you can do some research and see what odds bookies provide for them.
- Searching for the most competitive odds can later on result in possible higher winnings. Moreover, while line shopping is a common strategy in football betting, it is also frequently used for betting on many other sports.
2. Removing the Vig
- With vig betting, we’re getting right down to the nitty-gritty. Moreover, there is something called the “implied probability”. This term is used for odds that are juiced, overrounded, or simply boosted.
- The vig, or vigorish, means the profit that the bookmaker makes when accepting a punter’s bet. This means the odds are not as straightforward as one might think.
- If we calculate the vig and remove it, we’ll see the actual interpretation of a particular outcome of an event made by bookies. So, placing bets is much easier while having a real picture of a particular outcome at your fingertips.
- You can calculate the vig yourself, but you won’t need to, since the internet is full of online vig counters.
3. Fading the Public
- Our advanced tips for betting on sports couldn’t miss “the fading the public” strategy. This strategy implies that you check out the trending predictions and go against them.
- The method is useful due to the fact that there are many biases among people. Also, if lots of bettors place bets on one team or player, a bookmaker will alter the odds. That’s when you can jump in and place a bet on another team or player with more competitive odds.
4. Keep a Record of Your Bets
- Having personal stats of your bets can help you in the long run. Before all else, you should keep track of the changes in funds in your account balance. The same goes for being responsible and taking care of your account login details.
5. Arbitrage Betting
- Just like vig removal and shopping line, arbitrage football betting, in a way, relates to odds. The difference is that you are also concerned with markets.
- This strategy is all about covering many outcomes or, for example, two out of two possible ones. It may be interesting, but this method requires a lot of patience. Also, not all bookies allow this form of betting.
6. Hedge Betting
- If you want to minimise the risk of losing, you can practise hedge betting. Hedging bets means placing a lay bet or a bet that has a completely opposite outcome to the one previously placed. An extended form of this would be dutching.
Dutching Betting
- When someone is dutching, it means that they back a series or runners in a race to cover for potential losses.
- It includes hedging in the sense that there’s a different outcome, but it’s actually wider, since this way of betting covers various outcomes. Also, this term can refer to placing bets across numerous betting exchange platforms in order to avoid the fee charged for using these platforms.
7. Matched Betting
- Placing a matched bet is somewhat similar to hedging. Still, it’s a bit more complex because it involves two or more accounts on different operators’ sites. Also, one of the accounts must opt for a free bet offer.
- So, in matched betting, the bet placed using a free bet will be hedged with another, non-free bet account in order to retain the free bet.
8. The 1-3-2-6 System
- The 1-3-2-6 betting strategy is a progressive method based on stakes that your bet slips can have. It’s about placing one unit for the first, three for the second, two for the third, and six for the fourth bet, but only in a winning sequence. For instance, if your first £1 bet wins, you should place £3 on your second bet.
- If it also wins, you will need to place a £2 bet next. Finally, if your third bet wins, your next bet will have a £6 stake amount. In case any of your bet loses, you start with the cycle all over again, using your initial stake amount (£1). While this method is usually used for casino games, it can be adapted to sports betting, too.
9. The Fibonacci Betting System
- This system is also mostly used in the casino world, but can also be used as a football betting system. It also relates to having specific stake amounts in a sequence of bets.
- More precisely, this system leads you to determine your stake based on your previous two bets. For example, if your first bet was £1, your second bet was £2, your third bet was £3, and your fourth bet was £4, your next bet should be £7.
- If you win, you subtract the last two bets from your sequence and are left with (£1 and £2). In case you lose a £7 bet, you should add that stake amount (£7) to the last stake in your sequence, which is £4.
10. Statistical Analysis
- Analysing sports betting stats is old, but at the same time, it is one of the most successful betting strategies for football. There are plenty of things to focus on when performing stats analysis.
- Some of them include but are not limited to players’ stats, team stats, and stats that involve game elements (ex. goals, corners, fouls, free kicks, offsides, etc.). After coming up with real numbers, one will need to base their future bets on the statistics they got.
Become an Expert in a Team/League
We already mentioned how important it is to have stats in mind when betting as one of the top football betting strategies for advanced bettors. Actually, becoming a team or league expert for football events, such as Euro 2024, means that you become a jack of all different (statistical) “trades”. Here’s what we point towards when we say this.
Football Team Tactics and Formations
This is about getting to know how certain coaches make their football tactics and how they organise their squads, switch between football team formations, and substitute players.
Historical Performance Data
Pretty self-explanatory: knowing the tradition and previous stats, be it wins, losses, draws, or trophies, can always be useful for betting.
Head to Head Stats
When players or teams are facing each other, having an insight into their entire or recent head to head football stats history is one of the essential methods for advanced bettors.
Player Injuries and Suspensions
Football matches also differ in the sense that some players may be absent from the squad. If it’s the top players who are injured or suspended, it’s crucial to know this before placing any bets.
Home/Away Performances
Some teams get the energy from their fans in the stadium. Others know how to play well on both sides. Being aware of this brings yet another advantage during bet placing.
Match Conditions
Will it be rainy, snowy, sunny or windy? Is the air humidity high or low? These, and many other factors, have a big impact on the match result. Therefore, you may want to take them into account when betting.
Poisson Distribution Mode
Poisson distribution formula refers to the probability of certain things happening within a particular timespan. In terms of, let’s say, football betting, this means that we can calculate the attacking and defence power of two teams based on their scored and allowed goals.
Risk Management Strategies for Football Betting
In the sea of countless bettors, the best football betting strategy is not placing a blind bet. Rushing things or not doing proper research before placing bets is something no player should do. That being said, all the major football betting strategies for advanced bettors include risk-management methods.
Fixed Percentage Betting
Have you ever caught yourself placing bets with stakes amounts fluctuating like a roller coaster? If the answer is yes, the fixed percentage football betting strategy is here to tell you that you should lower risks by having a consistent percentage of your bankroll on every bet.
Level Staking
Similarly to the previous method, levelling your stake includes placing different bets with the same stake amount. Regardless of odds or markets, you want to manage potential risks by having a fixed stake amount on every bet slip.
The Kelly Criterion
With the Kelly criterion betting, you can calculate different aspects of your future bet based on the “f = (bp – q) / b” formula. First, you should take the odds and subtract the number 1 (-1) from them. Next, you need to calculate the winning probability (ex. 50% chance = 0.50).
Then, you have to find out the losing probability, which you can calculate by subtracting the number 1 from the winning probability that you get (ex. 1- 0.50 = 0.50).
The percentage number that you get will tell you how much of your bankroll you should stake, which you get by multiplying the odds with the winning probability, and then subtracting the losing probability, after which you should divide everything by the odds value.
The Maria Staking Plan
Yet another very interesting betting strategy is the Maria Staking plan. It originated in the UK, where a lady called Maria had considerable payouts at horse races. In general, it’s about having a set percentage of stake amount as follows:
- 1% of bankroll for odds of 3.5 or lower;
- 0.6% of bankroll for odds of 3.6 to 7.4;
- 0.4% of bankroll for odds of 7.5 to 11.
If your bankroll increases after such bets, you continue to increase your stake by 1%. In the event that your bankroll decreases, you don’t increase your stakes either until your bankroll drops down to 65% of your starting amount.
Avoiding Restrictions
If any method or strategy is by any means forbidden by a bookie, we recommend not using it at all. This is because your account might be permanently banned.
For example, if an operator prohibits mug betting, you may replace it with matched betting, if allowed. The same goes for all the other rules, like switching between multiple accounts on the same platform or so.
Football Betting Strategies for Advanced Bettors – Final Thoughts
In general, there are three main groups or categories we can divide football betting strategies for advanced bettors. These are strategies based on market analysis, methods on becoming a league or team expert, as well as risk-management strategies.
Each of the categories has a large number of different minor methods that you can use. Most of them involve patience and responsibility. Of course, whichever strategy or strategies you opt for, it’s always important to bet responsibly and make sure you respect all the rules that bookies set.
Football Betting Strategies for Advanced Bettors FAQ
Quick and useful info about the expert betting tips for football is also available in our FAQ section.
What are the most popular football betting strategies for advanced bettors?
In fact, there are many. But most of them come down to methods acquired by market analysis, strategies leading you to become a league or team expert, and the ones that refer to risk-management.
What is the most successful betting strategy in football?
The most successful betting strategy in football may be to become a certain league or team expert. This, in contrast to many other strategies, gives you an advantage in making your own predictions, which usually have a solid success rate.
How are football betting strategies helpful?
Football betting strategies allow you to learn much about betting itself. They also help you know more about teams, players, leagues or so. All this can potentially make your betting success rate higher.
Is cashing out early a good football betting strategy?
An experienced bettor may actually develop the feeling when to cash out early. So, this may not be the greatest sports betting method for beginners, but advanced bettors may practise this method often.
What does chasing steam mean in football betting?
The term “chasing the steam” refers to bettors looking for certain odds. To specify, a large wager on a certain game may cause bookies to change the odds. Chasing the steam means that players go and look for a bookie that still hasn’t changed the odds.
Is arbitrage betting legal?
Some bookies allow this betting method, and some don’t. Still, those bookmakers who allow it may limit your account in case they notice you taking advantage of sports betting promotions and odds.
