Stats are not just for nerds. Actually, it can be an important aspect of sports betting as people are able to study advanced statistics to predict the outcome of the game. While this sounds really awesome, it is not as easy as you think, as there are many factors that go into this equation.
Nevertheless, our idea is to delve deeper into the mystery that is sports stats. More precisely, how to use statistics in sports betting and whether and to what extent they work. Here is what we were able to come up with.
Understanding Betting Statistics
When you look at it, sports betting can be broken down into simple math. You don’t have to be a scientist or a mathematician to learn how to apply it. But you do have to know how to follow sports betting trends and calculate the possible odds.
By following basic stats, punters are able to follow the team positioning throughout the season or follow previous matches and study a team’s form. However, there is so much more that goes into this. Advanced bet stats include understanding the number of possible goals, who scores first, and even the most obvious player to score.
To determine these outcomes, there is a lot that needs to be taken into account. You have to factor in both the opposing teams, their form, H2H record, injury concerns, the works.
What you have to know is that understanding all of these stats will not guarantee a win. It might pose an edge if you are able to calculate everything correctly, but a win is still not a hundred per cent guaranteed. Sports betting is still a game of chance. Luck is a significant factor that can’t be really incorporated into any sports betting equation that you are planning on doing.
How to Use Statistics in Sports Betting Effectively
Let’s view an example of using data analysis in sports betting. Today’s fixture is Brighton vs Everton, and your initial idea is placing an Over 2.5 Goals bet on the fixture. By applying simple analysis, you came to realise that Brighton scores 2.5 goals on 76% of occasions at home. At the same time, the visiting Everton does the same in 56% of their matches.
Now you look at their most recent matches, and you see that in a 10-game stretch, the pair scored more than 2.5 goals in 50% of their matches played. This means that the teams have about a 43% chance of repeating the same scoring output at the game you are preparing to bet on.
However, in order for the bet to be worth your while, the odds have to be 2.30 or larger. This means that if the operator offers less than that, you should avoid making this type of bet. A viable alternative would be to wait to see if the live odds change during the match.
Of course, this is just one of the examples of how to use statistics in sports betting. But you get the idea of how it usually works.
Types of Sports Betting Stats
There are various types of sports stats that can be utilised. The calculations that you need to make depend on the type of sport that you are betting on. Some of them are universal, but depending on how the sport is played and the factors that go into playing it, the calculations will differ.
For instance, horse racing statistics require you to determine whether it is best to go for a win bet or a trifecta. Betting on basketball requires considering a large amount of points scored in four different quarters.
In comparison, Esports betting statistics are an entirely different matter, which just may be the hardest to calculate given an entirely different rule set that goes into every individual video game played.
Sports betting stats may also vary depending on whether you are betting on an individual or a team sport. Actually, it is harder to calculate the trends developed by a single person in sports like tennis, boxing, or badminton than it is for an entire team.
To see how statistical betting can help you base on an individual sport, here is a detailed breakdown of each of them.
Team Statistics
When gathering team statistics there are various types of trends that you have to take into account. Football betting stats might be the easiest to find, but other sports also keep a pretty good record.
- Home/Away win record
- Number of total goals/points scored
- Home vs Away goals/points scored
- Current form
So for example, the stats that you might need to gather may look like this: Arsenal has 12 wins at home and 5 wins away, a 35:12 goal average, with 20 goals scored at home and 15 away. In their last 10 games, they won seven times, drew twice and lost one game.
Player Statistics
When it comes to individual sports like tennis or MMA, a completely different mindset needs to be taken as opposed to gathering football player statistics; therefore, if you are gathering tennis betting stats, you are going to need to look at something like this.
- Total games won
- Number of aces
- First serve percentage
- Win on 1st serve
Therefore, in the case of tennis statistics, they will look like this: Alexander Zverev had 2 aces in a match in which he had a 69% first serve efficiency and 47% efficiency on the second serve.
Historical Performance
Never underestimate the history of a sport. When calculating your sports betting statistics, always take into account the history of the team, the competition, and previous H2H results. Here are some records that you need to keep in mind.
- Number of titles won
- Team placement throughout the years
- H2H record between two teams
- Previous season record
So you might get something like this: The London Lions have won three titles so far, and are defending their champion against Newcastle Eagles, a team that they have defeated three times in a row this season.
Betting Line Movement Statistics
Sometimes, when gathering betting data, you have to look at the bookies the same way you are analysing the teams that you were planning to bet on. Lines almost never stay the same. Due to various factors, the odds may change a few times before the match starts. Some bookies may also offer sports betting offers with enhanced odds or other bonuses that align well with certain line movements, which you can use to your advantage.
For that reason, it is best to follow the changes as they happen. If you place a bet when the odds are favourable, you may avoid the risk of them going down later. For that reason, calculating line movement stats just may be more valuable than calculating game stats.
Combining Statistics With Other Betting Strategies
When it comes to how to use statistics in sports betting effectively, sports betting strategies or systems play an important role. It works much better if you have a team gathered on crunching data and pooling their resources. But individuals are able as well, as long as they create a system that works for them.
Just look at the Moneyball approach created in baseball. It employs a system where players were traded and acquired based on statistical analysis. The same method can be applied to betting and there are people who have been able to employ it in other types of sports, not just baseball.
Common Mistakes and Fallacies
Football betting statistics or any kind of stats that you can use in betting are not a foolproof system. Sometimes, no matter how much data you throw at it, the outcome may come out false in the end. Also, it just may happen that you misinterpret the data, leading you to mistakes that could incur losses.
- Overfitting: This is something that happens when punters start to analyse historical data, which leads them to create data which are not really predictive for future events.
- Ignoring Sample Size: Not having sufficient data and placing trust in it. A trend emerging in a few recent games does not guarantee it will continue to happen. Much more data is needed.
- Confirmation Bias: Interpreting info based on your pre-existing beliefs. Some punters tend to focus on the statistics that support their idea without objectively considering the evidence that goes against their belief.
How to Use Statistics in Sports Betting – Conclusion
When it comes to how to use statistics in sports betting, there is much more evidence that supports the positive side of it. Actually, it is hard to find something against it as it does help to improve your results. That said, it is still not a hundred per cent certain, and you still have to trust your instincts.
Following the statistics blindly is not something that you should do. Also, you have to use it carefully, as it may lead you to bet much more than you originally intended to wager. Statistical betting is an excellent tool for progress, but it still needs to be used wisely.
Nevertheless, devising your own betting strategy that involves stats is a great way to go. A trial-and-error approach is always a good way to check if something works. If collecting data and employing statistics helps you to get there, you should stick by it and use that approach as best as possible.
How to Use Statistics in Sports Betting – FAQ
Here are a few more answers about the topic for the end.
Can statistical analysis ensure success in sports betting?
There isn’t an approach that can ensure success when it comes to sports betting. It is still a game of chance. A statistical approach may help you get better insight and improve your chances of winning but it will never guarantee total success.
Where can I find reliable sports betting stats?
You may be able to find good sources with various reliable sports betting syndicates, as they are sure to harbour the necessary information.
What betting stats are considered the most useful?
There are tons of sites on the internet that allow you to find reliable bet statistics. However, it is better to find stats from official sources and create your own database.
How is data analysis used in sports betting strategies?
Data analysis helps to predict future trends in sports betting. However, it is not able to predict them with a hundred per cent accuracy.
What is “Gambler’s Fallacy”?
It is a belief where people think that if an event has happened more frequently than expected, it is less likely that it will happen again.
Can statistics help me create a low-risk approach to sports betting?
Statistics can give a certain edge and lower the risks, but it will never be a risk-free approach to sports betting.
